If you're like me, you're wondering whether these caucuses and primaries really matter, or whether it's just something to occupy the news media until the nominating conventions. Here's some data that may help:

Iowa
Year	Democrat	Nomination?	Republican	Nomination?
2004	John Kerry	Yes	George W. Bush(*)	Yes
2000	Al Gore	Yes	George W. Bush	Yes
1996	Bill Clinton(*)	Yes	Bob Dole	Yes
1992	Tom Harkin	No	George H.W. Bush(*)	Yes
1988	Dick Gephardt	No	Bob Dole	No
1984	Walter Mondale	Yes	Ronald Reagan(*)	Yes
1980	Jimmy Carter	Yes	George H.W. Bush	No
1976	Uncommitted	No	Gerald Ford	Yes
	Success Rate:	62.5%	Success Rate:	75%

(*): Ran unopposed

New Hampshire
Year	Democrat	Nomination?	Republican	Nomination?
2004	John Kerry	Yes	George W. Bush(*)	Yes
2000	Al Gore	Yes	John McCain	No
1996	Bill Clinton(*)	Yes	Pat Buchanan	No
1992	Paul Tsongas	No	George H.W. Bush	Yes
1988	Michael Dukakis	Yes	George H.W. Bush	Yes
1984	Gary Hart	No	Ronald Reagan(*)	Yes
1980	Jimmy Carter	Yes	Ronald Reagan	Yes
1976	Jimmy Carter	Yes	Gerald Ford	Yes
	Success Rate:	75%	Success Rate:	75%

(*): Ran unopposed

So on the one hand, yes, it does matter. Over the last 32 years, Iowa and New Hampshire have successfully predicted roughly 75% of the major party's nominations. On the other hand, as has been the case more than half the time, the Iowa winners did not win in New Hampshire. So clearly, two of the four will be incorrect this year.

Conclusion? Not really. I think the best we can say is the winners have got to be feeling good about themselves, but it ain't over yet.