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About the Blog

The thoughts and theories of a guy who basically should have gone to bed hours ago.

I know, I know - what's the point? But look at it this way - I stayed up late writing it, but you're reading it...

Let's call ourselves even & move on, OK?


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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

2006 Election Thoughts (Post-Election)


First it must end, and then it will begin.

Here we are again at Election Day+1, and there are still significant races to be decided. The voters are done, and now it's up to the lawyers and the conspiracy theorists. All I have to say is this: Please, God, let the Democrats take the Virginia and Montana senate seats. Although I prefer a Republican senate and know next to nothing about any of the four candidates involved , I just can't bear to listen to the result of two Democratic leads turning into Republican victories in a recount. Mark my words: people will blame everyone from Karl Rove to the CEO of Diebold.

As it turns out, all the carping about how totally disastrous the first major election with electronic voting machines was going to be has proven to be nothing more than paranoia and fear-mongering. I'm happy to see the other party take the senate in exchange for a vote of confidence in the election process. Forgive me, for I am weak...

In either case, it'll all be resolved by January, and that's when it all begins. The question everyone's asking this morning, of course, is the one I asked last night: What, exactly, is about to begin? If it's significant progress in Iraq, progressive policies around immigration, stem-cell research, gay marriage, etc. then I'll be glad to see it (and happy to vote for a 2008 Democratic nominee who will continue that progress). If it's a series of subpoenas and congressional hearings, followed by emboldened terrorists in Iraq and elsewhere, then we're in for a world of shit: including sweeping Republican victories in 2008 with a mandate to blow the crap out of just about everything. I'm exaggerating, of course, but I do believe that quite a bit rests on Ms. Pelosi's ability to restrain herself. We'll see what happens...

One other note: my iPod spit this out on my way into work this morning:


Come senators, congressmen, please heed the call;
Don't stand in the doorway, don't block up the hall.
For he that gets hurt will be he who has stalled;
The battle outside raging will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls,
For the times, they are a changin'

Heh...

posted by Brian at 9:33 AM


2 Comments:

  • Clearly I have Billy Joel on the brain -- ever notice the scansion of your Dylan fits "Only the Good Die Young"?

    Election Day+several, and I'm still disagreeing with you. You're committing the post hoc fallacy -- just because the Republicans didn't win, doesn't mean that the election machinery is reliable. It's still not, in several major ways.

    Let's put it this way -- let's say you wanted to know if anything went on in the close race in Virginia. There's no way to know. Doesn't matter who won, this is still insanely anti-small-D-democratic.

    Finally, I'm confused why subpoenas and hearings will embolden the terrorists. For one thing, they seem reasonably bold already. For another, you'd think you'd want to spend some effort on debolding the fraudulent and corrupt. More to say on this topic on jeffporten.com, someday....

    By Anonymous Jeff Porten, at 7:45 PM, November 11, 2006  


  • Billy Joel: Dylan's got an extra line in the stanza, but yeah - it's close. I bet BJ would tell you that's no accident. He's very into the whole "early influences" thing...

    Post-hoc fallacy: you're right, there's no way to know, just as there wasn't in 2004, 2002, or 2000. But now we have empirical evidence about post-election behavior: Republicans didn't send attack lawyers in when the election got close, nor have they taken to the media to attack the voting machine manufacturers, the polling place workers, or the various GOTV tactics to claim an unfair result. While this doesn't change the actual existence of fraud, it goes a long way to instilling/destroying confidence in the election process. Face it - the Republicans do their fear-mongering over terrorism, the Democrats do it over "election stealing" and the like. I'm not excusing anyone, but it definitely goes on...

    Subpoenas: Not to minimize the loss of life in Iraq or London, but emboldened terrorists are capable of more than IED's and local train bombings. I could give you 5,000 words on this, but my basic feeling is that the core group of terrorists will always exist, and that this core expands to a group of foot-soldiers who only sign-up when it seems clear that the terrorist position is the one most likely to remain in power long term (guys like Atta or Moussaoui).

    When we blew the hell out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and then Quadaffi gave up, Iran came to the table for talks, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and others started making noise about squashing extremism, a lot of those potential foot soldiers fled for the hills for fear of being on the losing side. As internal strife builds in the US, and is broadcast in real time to the Muslim street, these people feel more secure about stepping forward and joining the fight. If word spreads that the Americans may throw Bush out of office because he attacked their terrorist leaders, it becomes an open admission on our part: do what you want - we'll only come after you if you actually attack us. Pre-emptive strikes are not allowed.

    That's about as much confidence as you can give those folks...

    By Blogger Brian, at 2:33 AM, November 12, 2006  


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