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About the Blog

The thoughts and theories of a guy who basically should have gone to bed hours ago.

I know, I know - what's the point? But look at it this way - I stayed up late writing it, but you're reading it...

Let's call ourselves even & move on, OK?


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Friday, February 02, 2007

Polling Rudy


I can tell already that Rudy Giuliani's presidential candidacy is going to be very confusing for the nations pollsters and pundits. To wit:


One in five Republicans said his views [on abortion and civil unions for same-sex couples] would "rule him out as a candidate" they could support. That included one-third of those who attend church every week, an important base of the GOP that makes up a third of party loyalists. Another 25% of Republicans said his views made them less likely to support him, nearly double the proportion who said they made them more likely to support him.

These numbers aren't surprising, but the fatal flaw in the survey is that it only polls Republicans. I think Rudy's strength as a candidate comes from the fact that he'd draw a broad base of support from both parties, since he'd give many Democrats a viable alternative to a candidate they don't like (like Hillary Clinton, for instance). And since so many of these polls are self-fulfilling (people's opinions are driven by the polls they read about every day), I think that more publicity around Rudy's popularity among Democrats will actually increase his popularity among Republicans.

And that's his biggest challenge: winning the Republican nomination. As far as I can recall, Rudy Giuliani is the first candidate in a long time that is going to have more trouble winning his party's nomination than he will have winning the election itself.

posted by Brian at 8:41 AM


2 Comments:

  • Actually, Senator Lieberman comes to mind ... he actually failed to win the nomination, and yet managed to win the election itself.

    Do you think Rudy would consider a run as an independent if he doesn't get the Republican nomination? I say he's too smart to do that - I'm sure has no desire to become the 'Ralph Nader of the Republicans' by splitting the vote...

    By Anonymous Mike Starr, at 12:47 PM, February 02, 2007  


  • I think Lieberman's case was very different. He was a senator for decades, and believed that his name recognition and his political momentum would make him a more viable candidate than the actual Democratic candidate. Turns out he was right. The Democratic candidate (what was his name, anyway?) netted independent-like vote totals, and Lieberman ran away with it.

    Rudy, on the other hand, is still largely unknown (or known for just one thing - 9/11). If he doesn't get nominated, he can always try again in four years. Had Lieberman taken six years off & then run again, he'd have looked like a has-been trying to relive the glory days.

    By Blogger Brian, at 1:01 AM, February 03, 2007  


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