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Historical Primary/Caucus Results
By Brian | January 16, 2008 | Share on Facebook
If you’re like me, you’re wondering whether these caucuses and primaries really matter, or whether it’s just something to occupy the news media until the nominating conventions. Here’s some data that may help:
| Iowa | ||||
| Year | Democrat | Nomination? | Republican | Nomination? |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Yes | George W. Bush(*) | Yes |
| 2000 | Al Gore | Yes | George W. Bush | Yes |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton(*) | Yes | Bob Dole | Yes |
| 1992 | Tom Harkin | No | George H.W. Bush(*) | Yes |
| 1988 | Dick Gephardt | No | Bob Dole | No |
| 1984 | Walter Mondale | Yes | Ronald Reagan(*) | Yes |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | Yes | George H.W. Bush | No |
| 1976 | Uncommitted | No | Gerald Ford | Yes |
| Success Rate: | 62.5% | Success Rate: | 75% | |
(*): Ran unopposed
| New Hampshire | ||||
| Year | Democrat | Nomination? | Republican | Nomination? |
| 2004 | John Kerry | Yes | George W. Bush(*) | Yes |
| 2000 | Al Gore | Yes | John McCain | No |
| 1996 | Bill Clinton(*) | Yes | Pat Buchanan | No |
| 1992 | Paul Tsongas | No | George H.W. Bush | Yes |
| 1988 | Michael Dukakis | Yes | George H.W. Bush | Yes |
| 1984 | Gary Hart | No | Ronald Reagan(*) | Yes |
| 1980 | Jimmy Carter | Yes | Ronald Reagan | Yes |
| 1976 | Jimmy Carter | Yes | Gerald Ford | Yes |
| Success Rate: | 75% | Success Rate: | 75% | |
(*): Ran unopposed
So on the one hand, yes, it does matter. Over the last 32 years, Iowa and New Hampshire have successfully predicted roughly 75% of the major party’s nominations. On the other hand, as has been the case more than half the time, the Iowa winners did not win in New Hampshire. So clearly, two of the four will be incorrect this year.
Conclusion? Not really. I think the best we can say is the winners have got to be feeling good about themselves, but it ain’t over yet.
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